Third, the rotation phase follows naturally from the preparatory state ... If one knows the initial population-level preparatory state (fig. 3, circles) subsequent states are reasonably predictable
Results, Quasi-rhythmic responses during reaching, paragraphs 4 and 5; Figure 3
Leave-one-condition-out R2 of the +150 ms state from the -50 ms state is 0.632 in J-array and 0.748 in N-array, both above 0.5. Shuffle 3 gives 0.633 to 0.718 (median 0.671) in J-array and 0.611 to 0.689 (median 0.656) in N-array, so the data exceed the control in N-array only. Shuffle 1, which has no rotation, scores 0.82 to 0.91 in every run, so this R2 rewards any consistent map from the first state to the last and is a weak test of the claim. With jPCA refitted leaving each condition out, the R2 is 0.615 and 0.727 against shuffle 3 medians of 0.628 and 0.649, reached by 8 of 10 shuffle 3 runs in J-array and none in N-array; several runs lie within 0.02 of the J-array value, and the round-2 verifier's copy printed 0.614 and 6 of 10, so this count moves with small numerical differences between runs. A phase score (the last phase predicted as the first plus the other conditions' mean advance) is 0.763 and 0.894 for the data, against 0.236 and -0.356 for no advance; shuffle 1 scores the same with and without an advance, and shuffle 3 keeps an advance of 65 and 99 degrees and scores a median 0.811 and 0.797, so this score also separates the data from shuffle 3 in N-array only (9 of 10 shuffle 3 runs reach the data's phase score in J-array, none in N-array).
How the test differed from the paper’s method
- The paper gives no measure of predictability; the complex-gain prediction and its thresholds were fixed here before the analysis.